By Kilaparti Ramakrishna
The Indo-Pacific is usually discussed as a geopolitical construct, a vast arena of strategic competition, maritime security and shifting economic power. But there is another Indo-Pacific that deserves at least as much attention: the one created by nature.
The Pacific and Indian Oceans are physically connected through the Indonesian seas by the Indonesian Throughflow, or ITF, the only tropical inter-ocean pathway in global ocean circulation. It carries enormous quantities of heat and freshwater from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean, influencing rainfall, sea level, marine ecosystems and climate far beyond the waters through which it flows.
Put simply, what happens in the Pacific does not stay in the Pacific. And what happens in the Indian Ocean does not stay in the Indian Ocean.
That scientific reality should increasingly shape our political and institutional response. It also creates an extraordinary opportunity for India as it chairs the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) from 2025 to 2027.
India launched the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) in 2019 as a framework for practical cooperation encompassing maritime security, ecology, resources, disaster-risk reduction, capacity-building, science and technology, and trade and connectivity. India’s wider regional vision has since evolved from SAGAR, Security and Growth for All in the Region, to MAHASAGAR, Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions.
The challenge now is implementation. IPOI provides a vision. IORA provides a regional platform. India’s chairmanship offers a rare opportunity to connect the two.
A changing ocean demands a different response
The scientific case for doing so is becoming more urgent.
Recent modelling published in Nature Communications suggests that the Indonesian Throughflow may respond nonlinearly to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Beyond a turning point, it could weaken rapidly. Under very high CO₂ concentrations, exchange between the Pacific and Indian Oceans could eventually decline to roughly half its present strength, potentially reshaping the Indo-Pacific marine environment and affecting wider global ocean circulation.
This should not be interpreted as a prediction that the connection between the two oceans will suddenly be severed. But it is a warning that one of the critical arteries of the global ocean system could be significantly altered by climate change.
Meanwhile, another demonstration of Indo-Pacific interconnectedness may be developing before us. El Niño is strengthening in the Pacific, with forecasts indicating that the 2026–27 event could become very strong toward the end of this year. Developments in the Indian Ocean could interact with Pacific conditions to reshape rainfall, drought, extreme heat, flooding and marine heatwaves across the region.
For Indian Ocean countries, these are not abstract changes in oceanography. They reach directly into monsoons, agriculture and food security, fisheries, coral reefs, water resources, coastal economies and ultimately human lives.
There is, therefore, no purely Indian Ocean climate problem, just as there is no purely Pacific climate problem. We are dealing with one interconnected ocean and climate system.
India already has much of what is needed
This is where India’s IORA chairmanship presents an unusual opportunity.
India does not have to create the scientific foundations for regional leadership from scratch. It already possesses one of the developing world’s most substantial ecosystems of ocean science and technology.
The National Institute of Oceanography, together with institutions under the Ministry of Earth Sciences – including the National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT), Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR) and National Centre for Earth Science Studies (NCESS), alongside the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and India Meteorological Department, provides capabilities extending from ocean observation and modelling to monsoon prediction, coastal science, deep-ocean technology and early warning.
INCOIS already operates sophisticated ocean-observing and forecasting systems and provides tsunami and ocean information services extending beyond India’s shores. NIOT is pushing technological frontiers through the Deep Ocean Mission, including deep-sea vehicles and MATSYA-6000. Indian institutions are also training scientists and building capacity across the region.
India’s opportunity is therefore not simply to showcase national excellence. It is to turn national excellence into regional capacity.
Five steps India can champion
A practical agenda could begin with an Indian Ocean Observing and Early-Warning Partnership, linking Indian scientific institutions with their counterparts across IORA. Satellites, Argo floats, research vessels, gliders, autonomous vehicles, meteorological observations, modelling and artificial intelligence could increasingly operate as parts of a connected regional system rather than isolated national assets.
Second, ocean observations should be treated as essential public infrastructure. Just as roads connect economies, ocean observations connect societies to the information they need to anticipate risk. Data should move across borders; data should become knowledge; and knowledge should become usable services reaching fishermen, farmers, ports, coastal planners and disaster managers.
Third, India should use IORA to move beyond traditional technology transfer toward technology co-development. Indian Ocean countries should participate in designing and adapting the technologies they need rather than simply receiving technologies developed elsewhere.
Fourth, scientific capability must be connected to finance. Too many excellent ocean initiatives remain pilot projects. Too much scientific knowledge never becomes an investable solution. IORA can help connect researchers and governments with development institutions, businesses, communities and investors.
The goal should be to move from scattered projects toward an Indian Ocean implementation system linking observations, science, technology, project preparation, finance and capacity-building.
Finally, India should use its chairmanship to ensure that the Indian Ocean speaks more strongly in the global climate debate. As the world moves toward COP31 in Antalya, the question is no longer whether the ocean belongs in climate policy. It is how ocean science and ocean action can contribute directly to climate stabilization, resilience and prosperity.
A legacy beyond two years
India’s IORA chairmanship lasts only two years. Its legacy need not.
Success should not be measured by the number of meetings held or declarations adopted. It should be measured by whether, at the end of India’s chairmanship, Indian Ocean countries are better connected scientifically, better able to anticipate climate risks, better able to share technology and data, and better able to finance solutions.
The ocean itself offers the most compelling argument for such cooperation. It does not recognize the boundaries we draw on maps. A change in the Pacific can alter rainfall around the Indian Ocean. A change in circulation through Indonesia can redistribute heat across ocean basins. Climate disturbances can travel thousands of kilometers before appearing at our shores.
Our institutions must learn to cooperate as effectively as the ocean itself is connected. India has the scientific capability. IPOI provides the vision. IORA provides the regional platform. Climate change provides the urgency.
India’s opportunity now is to bring them together—and demonstrate that the Indo-Pacific need not simply be a geography of strategic competition. It can also become a geography of scientific cooperation, shared resilience and collective solutions.
