Unpredictable Terrain Shakes Up Strategies and Strongholds
SAMEER SHOWKIN LONE
SRINAGAR, Sep 6: The recent delimitation of Assembly Constituencies (ACs) has injected an element of unpredictability into the political landscape of J&K forcing both analysts and political parties to rethink their strategies and approach as they navigate this new terrain.
The environment of unpredictability has made both the predictions and calculations difficult for the political analysts.
Almost every constituency, apart from the name changes, have seen redrawing of boundaries at an effective level changing the political demography of the assembly segments.
The development has made predictions quite uncertain as the assembly segments are no more strong bastions of a particular party rather these have become a mix of all.
“It is like a Khichdi now…the mix of all… so in such circumstances it is not a cakewalk for anyone,” said a former legislator, wishing not to be named.
He said the works he had done in his previous tenure in some areas are now shifted to another constituency. “In such circumstances, it is like you have to again start from zero in some areas,” he added.
This redrawing has shifted voter demographics, created new political dynamics, and disrupted traditional voting patterns, making it difficult for one and all to come close to some prediction.
While social media is abuzz with predictions with people giving edge to political parties over each other, there are no close predictions leaving the pot filled with uncertainty.
“The realignment of constituency boundaries has altered the composition of voters, merging communities with different political leanings and interests. This makes it hard to predict which political party or candidate might gain the upper hand in these newly formed or restructured constituencies,” said Iqbal Ahmed Mir, a political commentator.
Apart from the realignment of boundaries, the unfamiliar political terrain through which the candidates are now navigating areas that were previously part of different constituencies, is forcing them to appeal to new voter bases.
It is widely believed that this unfamiliarity adds a layer of complexity in predicting voter behavior and the effectiveness of campaign strategies.
Moreover, the fragmentation of traditional support base in some constituencies have seen traditional voter base being split across multiple regions. “This fragmentation disrupts the political calculus, weakening the influence of strongholds and making electoral forecasts more challenging.
The realignment and fragmentation of the political landscape may give rise to new power centers, altering the political equilibrium. This has created a fluid political environment, making it harder for analysts to rely on past trends and data to forecast outcomes.
