Exit polls and their reliability

Exit polls and their reliability


The exit polls have a history of underplaying mainly the opposition parties in this country.  What is more surprising is the fact, that of the previous three elections, the two in which UPA ended up forming the government at the center, the exit poll had got even the direction wrong.

The exit polls, in recent times, have had a history of guessing the results wrong – both locally and internationally. Domestically, post-2014, the psephologists had predicted an astounding victory of BJP over the then Mahagathbandhan, which was completely opposite of the actual results. In Karnataka state elections last, the pollsters had predicted ruling Congress retain power, however, BJP turned out to be the single largest party.

Internationally also, pollsters had got the Brexit vote wrong, along with 2016 US Presidential Elections – where they had predicted a victory for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

The most recent embarrassment for psephologists was during the Australian federal election results on Sunday morning, wherein they were predicting a victory for Australian Labour Party. However, incumbent Scott Morrison of the Liberal Party of Australia surprised everyone by sweeping the elections.

Right or wrong, everything will be clear and open on May 23. The brains behind these exit polls have sofar been able to create an atmosphere in favour of NDA forming the government. Now what will be the verdict of the people of this country shall be known to all after two days. Till then anybody is free to guess as per his own common sense and the results of television debates.

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