Azhar Hussain Tantray
The Budgam bypoll, slated for November 2025, has emerged as a defining moment in Kashmir’s political landscape. Triggered by Chief Minister Omar Abdullah’s decision to retain his Ganderbal seat, the contest transcends a routine electoral exercise. It offers a rare lens into voter sentiment in post-2024 Kashmir and serves as a litmus test for whether campaign promises have translated into tangible governance.
The National Conference enters the election from a position of relative strength, having secured 41 seats in the 2024 assembly elections and led the alliance with Congress to power. Yet the initial euphoria has given way to cautious expectations.
Voters are increasingly focused on delivery in areas such as jobs, electricity subsidies and reservation reforms, all central pillars of the party’s manifesto. Political observers note that patience is wearing thin, particularly regarding promises of full statehood and youth employment, highlighting the widening gap between rhetoric and reality.
At the center of NC’s fortunes is MP Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, a long-standing pivotal figure in Budgam. His influence over voters and community networks could decisively shape the outcome.
However, differences with NC leadership over statehood and reservation commitments inject an element of uncertainty. Whether Ruhullah campaigns vigorously or maintains a measured distance could significantly affect the party’s ability to mobilize support.
The Peoples Democratic Party, once dominant in the Valley, has seen a steep decline, finishing third in the 2024 elections. For the PDP, the bypoll offers a chance at partial redemption. Its leaders frame the campaign around the argument that Budgam’s development has lagged due to the absence of dedicated local representation and that NC betrayed them by opting for Ganderbal over Budgam.
Their challenge lies in converting voter frustration into electoral support despite diminished political standing.
A potential game-changer in Budgam is the People’s Alliance for Change (PAC), a coalition of the Peoples Conference, Justice and Development Front and Peoples Democratic Front. By uniting diverse political and social groups, PAC aims to offer a credible alternative to the established parties. Its influence is anchored in Molvi Imran Reza Ansari, JKPC General Secretary, whose religious and social stature carries significant weight in the constituency.
Several areas of Budgam, particularly near Khan Sahib, remain strongholds of PDF President Hakeem Mohammad Yaseen, where traditional patronage networks continue to shape electoral outcomes. PAC’s strength is further reinforced by local support from newly formed Justice and Development Front leaders, who maintain grassroots connections in selected pockets. These networks could prove pivotal in consolidating support and presenting PAC as a viable alternative.
Beyond established formations, other parties and independent candidates add further unpredictability. The Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party appeals to voters prioritizing development, transparent politics and pragmatic governance, while the Awami Ittehad Party, led by incarcerated MP Engineer Rashid, draws support from first-time voters and those disillusioned with traditional parties. Independents representing local interests could also sway sizeable margins, making the race even more competitive.
Adding to these political forces is the Unreserved Category movement, which introduces another layer of complexity. Students and activists advocating for reservation reforms have grown increasingly organized, bringing their concerns into the political spotlight.
Their involvement is likely to influence voting patterns among educated youth, for whom reservation is central to economic opportunity. Parties, particularly the NC, face constant pressure to respond meaningfully to these demands.
Since the 2024 elections, Budgam voters have shifted from idealism to pragmatism. They now demand visible progress on infrastructure and employment, favor candidates with genuine local ties and weigh performance more than slogans. Skepticism toward opportunistic politics is high, and endorsements from respected community figures often carry more weight than party affiliation.
In this context, the bypoll emerges as a test of leadership, credibility and delivery. NC must balance internal dynamics while demonstrating progress on promises. The PDP faces the challenge of proving its continued relevance.
PAC, backed by influential figures and robust local networks, along with the growing influence of the Unreserved Category movement, has the potential to reshape voting patterns in unexpected ways, making the contest both unpredictable and significant.
