Prof. SHAKIL ROMSHOO
Intense warm air advection over parts of South Kashmir caused a rapid increase in temperature and significant snowmelt on the afternoon of January 4th. Contrary to speculation and rumors circulating on social media, this phenomenon is unrelated to volcanic, tectonic, or hot spring activity in the region.
The transformation of the air mass led to a strong surface-based temperature inversion, which often contributes to the formation of dense fog. Combined with warm air advection—typically associated with western disturbances, easterlies, and other air masses—these atmospheric processes increased heat flux from the atmosphere, raising surface temperatures by an average of 10°C in some areas of South Kashmir within a single day.
Data from our South Kashmir observatories indicate that the warm air advection began on January 2nd and peaked Jan 04. Please refer to the temperature profiles of Daksum, Matigawran, and Hirpora in South Kashmir, which reflect the effects of warm air advection. However, IUST (Awantipora) and several other stations in South Kashmir do not show evidence of this phenomenon.
his process, in which atmospheric motion transports warm air from a high-temperature region to a colder one (associated with westerlies, easterlies, and other air mass transport), results in a steady rise in temperatures as the warmer air displaces the colder air. Additionally, the role of cloud cover, longwave radiation, and turbulent heat flux further contributed to the localized warming observed in the region.
Meanwhile, the MeT department reacting to these reports said there was possibility of the warm wind coming from the south side given the weather forecast predicted by the department.
Director MeT department Srinagar, Mukhtar Ahmad said that it was possible to receive warm winds in Pir Panjal and other areas as the wind was blowing from the south direction.
The wind coming from the North direction remains cold and dry while the wind coming from south direction is relatively warm and moist. Given the prediction of western disturbance, the warm wind is expected. This can be followed by the rainfall or snowfall as already predicted by the weather department,” Director MeT said.
